Aartha Analytics | Weekly Market Insights & Algorithmic Signals — November 1, 2026
Weekly Market Recap & Outlook (Oct 26 – Oct 30, 2026)
Executive Summary: The Fed Held — But Two Members Dissented For a Hike, and October Closed in a Tech Rout
The week was not a broad decline. It was four quiet sessions and one violent Friday.
The S&P 500 finished at 7,580.07, just −0.57% on the week — but −1.82% on Friday alone. The Nasdaq Composite closed 25,437.00, −2.86% Friday and roughly −2% on the week. The Dow held up best at 51,770.31, −1.09% Friday and about −0.9% over five sessions. Nearly the entire weekly loss arrived in the final session, and it arrived in one place: large-cap technology.
The defining event was the FOMC meeting on October 27–28. The Committee held the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% on a 10–2 vote — and critically, both dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, preferred a quarter-point increase. The statement described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace and inflation as elevated. On Friday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin each said higher rates could still be needed.
That is the shift worth internalising. The marginal policy risk is no longer when do we cut — it is do they hike again.
Yet the long end went the other way. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.94%, −4 basis points on Friday and −35 basis points across October. The 2-year finished at 4.56%, and the 10s-2s spread narrowed to 0.38 from 0.41 at the end of September. Hike risk rising at the front end while the long end rallies is a curve flattening — and a market pricing growth risk, not policy risk.
Underneath, the cross-asset tape was unusual: crude surged, gold broke to 52-week lows, and Bitcoin fell with equities. Haven assets and risk assets sold off together while energy ran. That is the signature of an energy supply shock passing through a market with thinning liquidity — not a conventional growth scare.
Key Market Drivers & Asset Class Performance
1. An Energy Supply Shock, Not a Demand Story
WTI settled at $104.12, +2.08% on Friday and its highest close since 15 September, with October's gain around 12%. Brent finished near $113.43. The bid is geopolitical — renewed risk around the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of further US military action against Iran — rather than any improvement in demand.
This matters for how it unwinds. A demand-led rally builds a floor. A headline-led rally does not. Every dollar of this move is reversible on a single de-escalation print, and it feeds directly into the inflation data the Fed is now explicitly watching.
2. The Dissent Is the Signal
Two votes for a hike, with inflation described as elevated and activity as strong, reframes every rate-sensitive position on the book. But the September employment report cuts the other way: payrolls rose just +29,000 with unemployment at 4.2% — a genuinely soft print.
Strong activity, elevated inflation, and a labour market adding almost nothing is an awkward combination, and it is why the curve flattened. The October jobs report on Friday is the next read on which half of that is real.
3. Gold Broke — and Bitcoin Did Not Hedge
Gold settled at $3,898.90, a 52-week low, −3.29% on Friday and roughly −2.9% on the week, now some 30% below January's record near $5,595. Silver closed −5.93% Friday at $49.28.
Bitcoin closed around $76,719, −2.56%, well off the ~$86,000 it traded earlier in October — and it fell alongside equities on Friday rather than against them. Whatever the long-run case, there was no decoupling in this tape.
With real yields falling and an energy shock running, both of these breaking lower is information. It points at a liquidity drain rather than a macro rotation.
4. Multi-Asset Scorecard — Friday, October 30
|
Asset |
Level |
Friday |
Context |
|---|---|---|---|
|
S&P 500 |
7,580.07 |
−1.82% |
≈ −0.57% on the week |
|
Nasdaq Composite |
25,437.00 |
−2.86% |
≈ −2% on the week |
|
Dow Jones Industrial |
51,770.31 |
−1.09% |
≈ −0.9% on the week |
|
10-Year Treasury |
4.94% |
−4 bp |
−35 bp over October |
|
2-Year Treasury |
4.56% |
−5 bp |
−32 bp over October |
|
WTI Crude |
$104.12 |
+2.08% |
≈ +12% over October |
|
Brent Crude |
~$113.43 |
+2.37% |
≈ +11% over October |
|
Gold |
$3,898.90 |
−3.29% |
52-week low |
|
Silver |
$49.28 |
−5.93% |
|
|
Bitcoin |
~$76,719 |
−2.56% |
from ~$86k earlier in October |
Sector Evaluation & Tactical Outlook
|
Sector |
Tactical Outlook |
Analysis |
|---|---|---|
|
Energy |
Constructive |
The only complex with genuine leadership. WTI and Brent up double digits over October on Hormuz supply risk. Positioning note: this is a headline bid, so size it as a trade, not a holding. |
|
Technology & AI |
Cautious |
Nasdaq −2.86% Friday and the worst of the five benchmarks. The secular case is unchanged; what broke is the willingness to pay for capex guidance without an ROIC timeline. |
|
Financials |
Neutral |
The long end moved −35 bp in October even as hike risk rose at the front. A flattening curve compresses net interest margin — the "higher-for-longer helps banks" reflex does not hold when the 10-year is the leg that's falling. |
|
Precious Metals |
Avoid / Reduce |
Gold at 52-week lows and ~30% off its January record, silver −5.93% in a session. This is a downtrend, not a base. We do not take long-term signals in assets making new lows. |
|
Bitcoin / Crypto |
Cautious |
$76.7k, below its October range, and correlated to equities on the down day. The structure has to repair before the decoupling argument is worth anything. |
|
Duration / Rates |
Watch |
Two dissents for a hike against a +29k payroll print. Friday's employment report is the tiebreak. |
Critical Calendar: Week Ahead (Nov 02 – Nov 06)
- Tue, Nov 3 — US Midterm Elections. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate races. Market sensitivity centres on fiscal trajectory, corporate tax and the regulatory outlook. Not a presidential year.
- Fri, Nov 6, 8:30am ET — October Employment Situation (BLS). The week's main event, and the direct read on whether September's +29,000 was noise or trend.
- Earnings. Mon: AAPL, PLTR (after close). Tue: SHOP, PFE (before), AMD, ANET, BKNG, AMGN, SMCI (after). Wed: UBER, MCD, CVS, DDOG (before), QCOM, ARM, APP (after). Thu: ABNB, TEAM, NET, AFRM, AAOI (after). Fri: MRNA, CHTR (before).
Key Technical Levels
Futures levels from our algorithm, with cash-index equivalents alongside.
- /ES — 7,597.49. Our shelf, and it sits right on the market: cash S&P closed 7,580.07, a 0.23% basis below it. Friday's cash low of 7,527.56 is the first line beneath; 7,623.68, the prior Friday's close, is what has to be reclaimed.
- /NQ — 28,072.98, the 200-day simple moving average. This is the shelf under the Nasdaq, and it is close. In cash terms the Nasdaq Composite's 200-day sits at 25,055.75 against Friday's 25,437.00 close — the index is only 1.52% above its long-term trend while already 4.28% below its 50-day. Caught between the two averages and testing the lower one.
- /BTC — $75,800 support, with Friday around $76,719, roughly 1.2% above it. The $81,000 area that failed is now overhead resistance, not a floor.
- /CL — $104.12. Extended and headline-dependent. Thursday's $102.00 close is the first test of whether the bid is real.
- Gold — $3,898.90, at 52-week lows. No support is identifiable until the decline stops making them.
📊 Algorithmic Signals: Signal Tracker & Trade Lifecycle
How to read this. Signal date is the session whose close generated the trigger; entry is priced at that close. Peak is the best close while the signal was open. At stop is the return to the published trailing-stop fill — the floor, not the target. Room to act counts sessions that closed above entry: the window available to take profit. Max drawdown is the worst intraday move against entry before the stop session. Profit-taking is discretionary and is not modelled — peak and stop are the two bounds the published rules produced, and real outcomes sit between them depending on when a reader acted. Signals are benchmarked to their sector ETF over the identical window; for semiconductor and optical names that is SMH.
These are published research signals, not Aartha's trading positions, and not the results of any account.
Closed Signals
|
Ticker |
Entry → Exit |
Peak / At Stop |
Room to Act |
Max Drawdown |
vs SMH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MRVL |
$261.94 (09/25) → $267.30 (10/12) |
+9.57% / +2.05% |
10 of 11 sessions above entry |
−5.27% (09/28) |
SMH −2.57% · +4.62 pts |
|
AAOI |
$115.59 (10/02) → $105.47 (10/08) |
+12.60% / −8.75% |
3 of 4 sessions above entry |
−2.41% (10/05) |
SMH −3.70% · −5.05 pts |
Measured on each signal's peak date: MRVL was +9.57% on 10/06 while SMH was +4.28% from the same start; AAOI was +12.60% on 10/06 against SMH +0.30%.
Two signals. One finished above entry at the stop, one below. Neither was exited at its peak — that call is yours, and the stop is only there for when you don't make it. AAOI is the instructive one: it gave three sessions and as much as +12.60% before the stop fired at −8.75%.
Post-Exit: What the Stop Avoided
|
Ticker |
Exit |
Price Since |
Move After Exit |
SMH, same window |
Stock-Specific |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MRVL |
$267.30 (10/12) |
$196.40 (10/30) |
−26.52% |
−11.59% |
−14.93 pts |
|
AAOI |
$105.47 (10/08) |
$71.94 (10/26) |
−31.79% |
−10.81% |
−20.98 pts |
Context we would rather state than have pointed out: semiconductors broke down as a group. SMH fell 13.86% from 09/25 to 10/30, and its three-month rank in our book collapsed from the 43rd percentile to the 9th. Roughly half of MRVL's post-exit decline was sector beta. The other −14.93 points were not, and that is the part the stop was for.
MRVL closed −10.05% on Friday alone. Neither exit was a good trade on its own; both were good risk management — they did not make money, they stopped losses that were about to get much larger.
No positions are currently open.
Portfolio Strategy: "Flat Into the Print"
- Cash and short duration. No open equity signals into a midterm election and a payrolls report in the same week. Elevated allocation to short-dated Treasury bills.
- No precious metals exposure. Gold and silver are making new lows. We do not initiate long-term positions in assets below their long-term trend — the January-to-October drawdown is exactly the scenario that rule exists for.
- Energy watched, not owned. The strongest tape on the board, and the most headline-dependent. A de-escalation headline reprices it overnight.
- Systematic re-entry. Cash is reserved to execute the next quantitative trigger once post-election structure confirms a floor. We would rather pay a higher price with less risk than a lower price with more.
Data Notes & Pricing Conventions
One reference point per asset type, applied every week:
- Equities and ETFs — official close
- Futures — exchange settlement
- Treasuries — US Treasury par yield close
- Crypto — 4:00pm ET
- Signal entries — the close that generated the signal; stop exits — the fill
- Drawdown — measured intraday
All levels are as of Friday, October 30, 2026. Week-over-week index percentages are computed from the October 23 and October 30 closes. AAOI's last verified close is October 26 ($71.94); it reports earnings November 5, and the post-exit figure will be restated next week. Figures are compiled from exchange, US Treasury and third-party sources.
Disclaimer
Content provided in this newsletter is strictly for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice, nor a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Aartha Investments is not a registered investment adviser. Signal performance shown is historical and does not indicate future results; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Trading financial markets carries substantial risk of loss, and you may lose more than your initial investment. Figures are compiled from third-party sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
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